The Illusion That We Understand The Past

Employers Who Violate Rules Of Fairness Are Punished By Reduced Productivity, And Merchants Who Follow Unfair Pricing Policies Can Expect To Lose Sales.

The Planning Fallacy Is That You Make A Plan, Which Is Usually A Best-case Scenario. Then You Assume That The Outcome Will Follow Your Plan, Even When You Should Know Better.

The Illusion That We Understand The Past Fosters Overconfidence In Our Ability To Predict The Future.

People Assign Much Higher Probability To The Truth Of Their Opinions Than Is Warranted.

I Would Be Wary Of Experts' Intuition, Except When They Deal With Something That They Have Dealt With A Lot In The Past.