Intuitive Diagnosis Is Reliable When People Have

The Effort Invested In 'getting It Right' Should Be Commensurate With The Importance Of The Decision.

An Individual Who Expresses High Confidence Probably Has A Good Story, Which May Or May Not Be True.

Often, The Most Enjoyable Part Of An Activity Is The Anticipation.

Policy Makers, Like Most People, Normally Feel That They Already Know All The Psychology And All The Sociology They Are Likely To Need For Their Decisions. I Don't Think They Are Right, But That's The Way It Is.

This Is The Essence Of Intuitive Heuristics: When Faced With A Difficult Question, We Often Answer An Easier One Instead, Usually Without Noticing The Substitution.