You're Surprised By Something, But You Don't

Nothing In Life Is Quite As Important As You Think It Is While You're Thinking About It.

What Happens With Fear Is That Probability Doesn't Matter Very Much. That Is, Once I Have Raised The Possibility That Something Terrible Can Happen To Your Child, Even Though The Possibility Is Remote, You May Find It Very Difficult To Think Of Anything Else. Emotion Becomes Dominant.

There Are Domains In Which Expertise Is Not Possible. Stock Picking Is A Good Example. And In Long-term Political Strategic Forecasting, It's Been Shown That Experts Are Just Not Better Than A Dice-throwing Monkey.

When You Analyze Happiness, It Turns Out That The Way You Spend Your Time Is Extremely Important.

It Is The Consistency Of The Information That Matters For A Good Story, Not Its Completeness. Indeed, You Will Often Find That Knowing Little Makes It Easier To Fit Everything You Know Into A Coherent Pattern.