The Quest For Certainty In Forecasting Outcomes

Economy Is Not Baseball, Where The Game Is Always Played By The Same Rules.

I Don't Think That Somebody Who Is Observing Or Predicting Behavior Should Also Be Participating In The 'experiment.'

Actually, One Of The Better Indicators Historically Of How Well The Stock Market Will Do Is Just A Gallup Poll, When You Ask Americans If You Think It's A Good Time To Invest In Stocks, Except It Goes The Opposite Direction Of What You Would Expect. When The Markets Going Up, It In Fact Makes It More Prone Toward Decline.

I Know It's Cheaper To Fund An Op-ed Columnist Than A Team Of Reporters, But I Think It Confuses The Mission Of What These Great Journalistic Brands Are About.

We Must Become More Comfortable With Probability And Uncertainty.