To Be A Very, Very Minor, Eighth-tier

I View My Role Now As Providing More Of A Macro-level Skepticism, Rather Than Saying This Poll Is Good Or This Poll Is Evil.

People Have Different Ways Of Interpreting History.

People Gravitate Toward Information That Implies A Happier Outlook For Them.

Expert Estimates Of Probability Are Often Off By Factors Of Hundreds Or Thousands. [...] I Used To Be Annoyed When The Margin Of Error Was High In A Forecasting Model That I Might Put Together. Now I View It As Perhaps The Single Most Important Piece Of Information That A Forecaster Provides. When We Publish A Forecast On Fivethirtyeight, I Go To Great Lengths To Document The Uncertainty Attached To It, Even If The Uncertainty Is Sufficiently Large That The Forecast Won't Make For Punchy Headlines.

I Don't Play Fantasy Baseball Anymore Now Because It's Too Much Work, And I Feel Like I Have To Hold Myself Up To Such A High Standard. I'm Pretty Serious About My Fantasy Football, Though.