People Have Different Ways Of Interpreting History.

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.

If There's A Major Foreign Policy Event, The President Gets On Tv, The Congress Doesn't.

You Can Build A Statistical Model And That's All Well And Good, But If You're Dealing With A New Type Of Financial Instrument, For Example, Or A New Type Of Situation - Then The Choices You're Making Are Pretty Arbitrary In A Lot Of Respects.

People Have Different Ways Of Interpreting History.

A Lot Of Things Can't Be Modeled Very Well.