Almost Everyone's Instinct Is To Be Overconfident

In Baseball You Have Terrific Data And You Can Be A Lot More Creative With It.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise Is What Distracts Us From The Truth.

Remember, The Congress Doesn't Get As Many Opportunities To Make An Impression With The Public.