The Signal Is The Truth. The Noise

Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

The Thing That People Associate With Expertise, Authoritativeness, Kind Of With A Capital 'a,' Don't Correlate Very Well With Who's Actually Good At Making Predictions.

Racism Is Predictable. It's Predicted By Interaction Or Lack Thereof With People Unlike You, People Of Other Races.

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

When A Possibility Is Unfamiliar To Us, We Do Not Even Think About It.