There's Always The Risk That There Are

I Don't Play Fantasy Baseball Anymore Now Because It's Too Much Work, And I Feel Like I Have To Hold Myself Up To Such A High Standard. I'm Pretty Serious About My Fantasy Football, Though.

Finding Patterns Is Easy In Any Kind Of Data-rich Environment; That's What Mediocre Gamblers Do. The Key Is In Determining Whether The Patterns Represent Signal Or Noise

Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise Requires Both Scientific Knowledge And Self-knowledge: The Serenity To Accept The Things We Cannot Predict, The Courage To Predict The Things We Can, And The Wisdom To Know The Difference.

People Don't Have A Good Intuitive Sense Of How To Weigh New Information In Light Of What They Already Know. They Tend To Overrate It.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.