People Still Don't Appreciate How Ephemeral Success

It's A Little Strange To Become A Kind Of Symbol Of A Whole Type Of Analysis.

If You Have Reason To Think That Yesterday's Forecast Went Wrong, There Is No Glory In Sticking To It.

Any One Game In Baseball Doesn't Tell You That Much, Just As Any One Poll Doesn't Tell You That Much.

Well The Way We Perceive Accuracy And What Accuracy Is Statistically Are Really Two Different Things.

One Of The Pervasive Risks That We Face In The Information Age, As I Wrote In The Introduction, Is That Even If The Amount Of Knowledge In The World Is Increasing, The Gap Between What We Know And What We Think We Know May Be Widening.