I'm Not A Great Believer In Self-help.

Knowing The Importance Of Luck, You Should Be Particularly Suspicious When Highly Consistent Patterns Emerge From The Comparison Of Successful And Less Successful Firms. In The Presence Of Randomness, Regular Patterns Can Only Be Mirages.

People Assign Much Higher Probability To The Truth Of Their Opinions Than Is Warranted.

People Just Hate The Idea Of Losing. Any Loss, Even A Small One, Is Just So Terrible To Contemplate That They Compensate By Buying Insurance, Including Totally Absurd Policies Like Air Travel.

Psychologists Really Aim To Be Scientists, White-coat Stuff, With Elaborate Statistics, Running Experiments.

We Associate Leadership With Decisiveness. That Perception Of Leadership Pushes People To Make Decisions Fairly Quickly, Lest They Be Seen As Dithering And Indecisive.